Nicolaus, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

256
FXUS66 KEKA 060810
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
1210 AM PST Fri Feb 6 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Conditions will greatly begin to moisten and cool Friday
and into the weekend. Widespread wetting rain will cross the area
around Sunday into next Monday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Over the past few days, high pressure east of the area has promoted
consistent offshore flow, generating clear and unseasonably warm
conditions even right along the coast. This pattern will begin to
significantly change Friday.

Broad, weak low pressure will gradually push into California with a
broad lobe of high pressure offshore. This will promote moderate
onshore flow Friday into Saturday, bringing a resurgence of marine
influence, especially to the coast with some weak marine stratus
likely by Friday evening. Marine air pushing inland will greatly
cool and moisten conditions each day.

There is high ensemble confidence that a deep trough a strong surface
cold front will sweep across the area Sunday into Monday. This front
will be focused on the northern half of the area and into Oregon.
Widespread wetting rain is expected along the front, though there is
still a good amount of uncertainty regarding amounts due to
variability in the moisture plume strength and duration,
particularly this far south. That said, ensembles consistently place
the area in the range for a weak atmospheric river with only very
limited high end potential.

Reflecting the moisture plume uncertainty, most likely rainfall
amounts vary from about 0.5 to 1.5 inches at low elevations in
Humboldt and Del Norte to 1.0 to 2.0 at higher elevations. Rain
amounts will be less further south with most likely ranges of 0.1
to 0.5 inches for most of Mendocino and Lake Counties. There is a
15% chance of some wind gusts over 45 mph right along the coast, but
any such winds would be very isolated to just the frontal passage
itself.

Much colder air will move in behind the front. Snow levels will most
likely drop to around 3000 feet by mid next week, but there will
most likely be too little moisture at that time to support strong
snowfall, with less than an inch or two at any highway passes. Any
additional rainfall next week shows very little confidence in
specific timing and amount. That said, there is very high ensemble
agreement in a generally colder and more moist pattern through at
least mid month with additional waves of rain likely over the next
couple of weeks. /JHW


&&

.AVIATION...Prevailing VFR conditions for all aerodromes through at
least 06/12Z. Satellite imagery depicts high-level clouds streaming
northward across the area overnight. With a weaker offshore flow, a
shallow marine layer is expected to develop along the coast
overnight into Friday. After 14Z, HREF suggest there is a 50-60%
chance of a shallow marine layer developing along the North Coast.
Should stratus develop, IFR to LIFR ceilings are expected. Any low
clouds are expected to lift and scatter out by late morning (after
17Z). However, onshore flow is expected to push stratus back inland
to the coast and adjacent coastal areas during the afternoon hours.
Mainly VFR to MVFR ceilings is expected for the coastal terminals
Friday afternoon and evening.

For the interior area, including UKI, prevailing VFR conditions with
very light and variable winds are expected to continue through the
next 24 hours. /ZVS


&&

.MARINE...A mid period westerly swell continue to slowly
subside across the waters. However, a larger, long period westerly
swell at around 10 to 12 ft at 16 seconds will build overnight and
early Friday, keeping seas elevated. This will result in hazardous
conditions to small craft through late Friday night/early Saturday.
Light to gentle winds southerly winds are expected to continue on
Friday. Winds are expected to increase to moderate to fresh breezes
over the weekend in advance of an approaching front, especially
north of Cape Mendocino. Northerlies returns in the wake of the
front Sunday night, with generally moderate to fresh breezes. Seas
remain elevated as additional west swells build into early next week.
/ZVS

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...A Beach Hazard Statement continue in effect through
Friday night due to a moderate risk of sneaker waves along areas
beaches. A large long period west swell is forecast to arrive
overnight and build into Friday across the coastal waters, with
heights around 10 to 12 feet at 15 to 16 seconds. These high energy
will bring a moderate risk of sneaker waves on Thursday, resulting
in the potential deadly waves that unexpectedly surge much farther
up the beach than previous waves, overtaking unaware beachgoers.
Remember to never turn your back to the ocean, and to avoid steep
beaches, jetties, outcroppings, and rocks during these events./ZVS


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Beach Hazards Statement through Friday evening for CAZ101-
     103-104-109.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for PZZ450-455-
     470-475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png